middle east

LOL Israel will never retreat to the 67 borders unless Hamas recognise Israel... A handful of moderates (out of an organisation of thousands) can make such comments as they know the event will never take place.

The majority of southern Lebanon was Christian and they supported the SLA, however massive numbers of these ingenious Christians fled Lebanon as Iranian militants took over (they supported Israel in the Lebanon/Israel wars)... Hizbullah at their strongest represented 10% of the population.

One of the most persuasive theories is that Hizbullah initiated the war as they were under threat of being disarmed and lacked any serious following within Lebanon.

Why would this work - for six years the Lebanese government were unable to disarm Hizbu'llah - what’s changed?

It was the leadership....would you support such a move, if the hamas government did recognise israel? WerenLt the current israeli leadership elected with a vague suggestion of returning the west bank?

Its got to be the best chance for peace - weLve seen that Israel canLt disarm the terrorists, without approaching scorched earth tactics

Whats changed....the introduction of the multinational force, with a mandate to disarm hezbollah of course. If I were Israel, I would also be providing financial aid and incentives to the Lebanese government to encourage and enable them to do it. Their economy has been battered by the destruction of the tourist infrastructure, which will make it even harder for them to disarm Hezbollah, and defend Southern Lebanon, without assistance.

Better ideas?

The current government were elected for their hardline stance.

But I would fully support Hamas if they were to revise their raison d'etre.

Fuck the international pressure and disarm Hizbu'llah... Once Hizbu'llah have been disabled, work with the Lebanese Government to rebuild the nation and change public opinion.

Under the current climate the Lebanese hatred for Israel is over shadowed by their support of Hizbullah. A 15,000 strong UN force will not be able to do what a more advanced and better trained 30,000 strong Israeli force failed to.

Its not a case of wondering if Hizbullah will attack again, its a case of waiting for their next strike.

I donLt see how youLre going to do that though.

What are you proposing? Fuck the UN, fuck the Lebanese civilians and invade and reoccupy?

YouLd suffer heavy military casualties (weLve already seen that for all the Israeli technological advantage, Hezbollah was doing damage), and ILm confident youLd see heavy civilian casualties - on both sides.

For all the US support Israel enjoys, I couldnLt see that lasting with days of more reports of the inevitable civilian casulties of such a move, and especially so if you disregarded the will of the UN.

ILve not heard anyone seriously talking about such a move - and having seen the tenacity of Hezbollah, I donLt think Israel could achieve the disarmament that way anyway.

Hezbollah has tentatively suggested that it might be prepared to turn its arms over to the Lebanese army.

Put the international force in place, negotiate with the Lebanese government offering a prisoner exchange, and contribute financially to the rebuilding of the country to encourage civilian support. Preferable? To my mind.

Effectively yes.

I'd rather see high military casualties (on either side) than civilian casualties... The next Hizbu'llah attack will be far more vicious and bring much more bloodshed.

Its better to take care of Hizbullah now with one blow, than witnessed a prolonged campaign similar to what happened in Iraq (had we taken care of Saddam the first time) … If Hizbullah is left to their own devices this problem will not amend itself.

Can you cite your sources?

Andy you're nuts... Do you know the prisoners Hizbullah want releasing?

Can I ask what exactly benefits Israel in your proposal? Hizbullah launch an attack on Israel and you suggest that Israel meet all of their demands and admit defeat?!?!?!

I donLt think youLll be able to. TheyLre better equipped and better embedded with more popular suport that the Iraqi resistance, for example, and even the Americans canLt disarm them.

YouLre too dependant on international support for arms anyway - I think youLd lose that support if you were to take that path.

Was that not the plan this timethough ? In a few weeks of fairly full on fighting, there was no reduction in Hezbollahs ability to launch rockets, and sign of its leadership? You talk about not wanting to prolong fighting - surely invading would be the most certain way of doing that? YouLd need to hold the land for months anyway.

It was on CNN a few weeks ago, I forgotten the rest

ILm not nuts at all. YouLll never negotiate a peace holding so many of their people - almost every succesful negotiation with terrorists involves the release of prisoners. YouLll have to give concessions to gain support from Leabnon and its people. This would be as part of the disarmament of Hezbollah and empowerment of the Lebanese army anyway.

Besides, the UN resolution 'encourages' a prisoner exchange.

Admit defeat? What is defeat exactly? Have you 'won' the last war yet? I can't see that any of your initial obectives were met, before you stopped fighting.

Support for Hizbu'llah is a new thing and isn't really relevant to the disarming of them - civilian populations moved out as Israel moved in.

As for relying on foreign weapons, we thrashed the Arabs with smuggled weapons 60 years ago, we now manufacture our own weapons and have the most powerful army in the middle east.

Who exactly are we dependent on? A common left wing myth is that israel needs the west... this is a total fabrication.

Arial attacks cannot win wars, Vietnam proved this... It is an American styled way of fighting - the only way to win wars is through ground troops and Israel deployed its ground troops too late into the conflict.

Andy if the IRA launched thousands of ballistic missiles into the UK from Ireland demanding that we released every prisoner.... would you meet these demands?

No.

What you're suggesting is insanity, Israel did not provoke this conflict, nor did Israel want this conflict... There is nothing to negotiate with Hizbullah - their only objective is the destruction of Israel.... How the fuck can you negotiate with someone who's only objective is your total destruction?

Do you meet them half way and chop off your arms?

Thats a lovely potted history of Iran there Joe, unfortuantely like most of the rot you cite it misses out a huge chunk of history and context. Your right in some respects Iran did have a progressive, democratically elected government, but it was overthrown in the 50's by a combination of the Americans and the British who installed the Shah, who proceeded to rule the country through one of history's most brutal secret police forces, thereby by setting the scene for the Islamic Revolution.

By the way, if there is a Lebanese hatred of Israel, theres a tiny posibbility that it might have been fuelled by the 30'000 people killed in Lebanon by Israel over the last 30 years.

is that not what i said?

"forced modernisation" I believe were my actual words.

Dano cite your sources on your death toll.

True, but you neglect to mention the context and the history which created the conditions for Khomeni and his band of fruit loops to take power. Your right the Shah did try to force modernity on Iran, but he was no benevolent dicatator he was a murderous scumbag, installed, maintained, encouraged and armed by the west, this in no small part fuels anti-western sentiment in Iran. Incidentally, Israel were selling arms to Iran and the Shah for years, this actually continued after the Revolution, i know you'll have a fit about that one, but honestly that is true.

The Lebanese death toll i cite is to be frank an estimate, taken from various international relations text's, from all parts of the poltical scene. It is very hard to get hold of a definitive total, for instance some texts cite 30'000 dead in the 82 invasion, some cite 10'000, add to this thousands of operations in the 70's, the late 70's invasion, the 86 invasion, the 'Grapes of Wrath' operation, you get 'about' 30'000 dead.

Israel sold arms to Iran as like itself it was a non Arab state surrounded by a sea of hatred... Israel and the west misjudged the true implementations of aiding an Isalmic Fundamentalist government.

You fail to mention the 50,000 killed by organisations like Hizbullah and the PLO... But that wouldn't aid your efforts of tarring Israel as the evilest state on the face of the earth

Your figures seem well out and do not account for militant deaths: In the '82 war the Beirut newspaper An Nahar stated that over 10,000 military personnel (PLO, Syrian, and others) had been killed by Israel.

The majority of these militants were not native to Lebanon and would not act as a catalyst to fuel hatred... I'm not denying that Israel hatred existed in Lebanon proir to 2006 - but the country was divided in two - Israel had many supporters within Lebanon.

" You fail to mention the 50,000 killed by organisations like Hizbullah and the PLO..."

come on joe, give us a laugh, lets have your sources on that one.

genocide watch.

are you sure? could you post the links?

Dano, welcome

Great stuff

Has there been a recent historical precedent where a modern, well equipped army has been able to defeat a large, entrenched group of guerillas, with acceptable casulaties (military and civilian)? :think:

I constantly address these issues but you don't want to hear any view point which might be anti Israeli. I think that is the definition of a bigot if we are into name calling

No.
The Viet Cong being the prime examples. If they keep the support of the people they win every time.

The majority of wars have been initiated by Arab states.
and lost by them

What does the verdict of a conflict have to do with the aspirations those nations? You accept that the majority of the wars are waged by the Arab states - but tar Israel as the evil state because it defeats it’s enemies in these attacks.

Does that not strike you as nuts?

yes because they have no cluster bombs no air force no tanks. just home made bombs. Israel is a state with all the state apparatus and power. It is grotesquely uneven

Home made bombs? You're living in a fantasy world - Iraq fired 39 scuds into Israel, Hizbullah fired thousands of Fajr-3's into Israel, almost every major war has involved advanced air strikes on Israeli soil... The terror campaigns you describe go hand in hand with the military campaigns that often see Israeli civilians as their target.

The majority of peace initiatives have been supported or created by Israel.
and they have all foundered because they did not go far enough

Not go far enough?

Forks, Israel completely pulled out of the Lebanon! How is that not going far enough? Yet despite this admirable move Hizbullah took advantage of this Israeli retreat and used it create a phenomenal Israeli attacking machine…. And 6 years later they struck.

Israel completely pulled out of the Gaza Strip, created the PA, armed the Palestinian Police and funded the service infrastructure that populations rely on, but instead of recognising Israel’s efforts and working with the Israeli’s to create a Palestinian state that would leave both nations in a stable and secure environment - the Palestinians used these efforts to attack Israel.

Forks peace processes work in stages, dialogue leads to actions and actions lead to further actions… Israel has always been willing to engage in this process, but their efforts are consistently met with destructive blows from the Arabs they wish to seek peace with.

The majority of the Arab states wish to drive the Jews into the sea.
why is this so? Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon (until the recent war) kuwait, Oman Dubai, Tunisia, don't and even the ones who do could not sustain that position were Israel to treat the palestinians like human beings. and make peace not war

You get me so fucking wound up.

Palestinian refugees live in far worse conditions in the Lebanese, Syrian and Jordanian camps than they do in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, they are regularly abused by their host nations and treated like untermensch. If this conflict revolved around a humanitarian core then surely we would see the status of such refugees elevated in these host nations?

You consciously choose to ignore the reality of the conflict. Prior to your accusations of alleged mistreatment that the Palestinians suffer, the Arab states regularly waged war on Israel… What was their cause then and why would this cause of disappeared?

With the exception of Vietnam - there have also been no successful campaigns.

Guerrilla forces tend to be able to effectively bite at the ankles of large military forces, but they are unable to deliver fatal blows to such forces... Take Afghanistan - despite the Mujahideens resistance in around 20 years they had only killed 15,000 troops (almost 2 million Afghans/Mujahideen had fallen)... Guerrilla Warfare is unable to defeat powerful armies - it just resists them.