China a rising giant or..

Discussion in 'News & Current Affairs' started by Yosef Ha'Kohain, Jan 18, 2007.

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  1. Yosef Ha'Kohain

    Yosef Ha'Kohain Registered User

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    China a rising giant or..

    an exagerated land of peasants?
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  3. andy_rocks

    andy_rocks Registered User

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    Rising quality of life -> rising wages -> more expensive goods -> fewer exports.

    They have a difficult few transition years ahead - but they're investing the money in science and education which is exactly the right place for a long term good economic prognosis.

    I'm going to try and go this summer to see for myself.
  4. Yosef Ha'Kohain

    Yosef Ha'Kohain Registered User

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    if you go drop me a line I'll hook you up :up:

    The family business is out there...

    Youre bang on the money - however their twist on capitalism is bizarre - if they truelly do rise to the splender that everyone is predicting will live in a very different world.
  5. BRID

    BRID Has name in red. Staff

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    China has blown me away twice - first by the absolute vastness of the place and the sheer number of people

    ... then 7 years later, going back and seeing entire cities being built in between visits - absolutely packed with people on an absolute mission to build, work, make money ..... evolve!

    China is doing industrially, socially, economically about 4 times faster than we ever could - they will easily be THE dominant super power in the next couple of decades.

    The age of the west is drawing to a close. China has woken!
  6. Daz

    Daz Registered User

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    I'm going in May, can't wait:D
  7. Yosef Ha'Kohain

    Yosef Ha'Kohain Registered User

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    :up:

    Even now the americans can only sit back and watch as the chinese break international trading sanctions, perform weapon tests in space, show the middle finger to the wto.

    Unfortunatly we may be replacing one evil with an even bigger evil - there is a very nasty side to china that hasn't yet been exposed to the occident.
  8. forks

    forks still not dead

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    oh I think it's been exposed plenty.
    Nobody can stop them doing whatever they like though.
    We can benefit from trade with china and they don't have to be seen as an enemy, just a competitor.Maybe as they get richer then they will become more freedom concious. The old communists can't cling to power forever.
    On the downside though they don't seem to care about the environment or human rights but I agree with Brid they are the future superpower.
    love to go there btw
  9. Yosef Ha'Kohain

    Yosef Ha'Kohain Registered User

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    its the old communists that are driving the country forward... they first allowed an upper class to emerge (the big chinese corporations that are buying up the west)... now they're allowing a middle class of factory owners to emerge.... but don't be under any illussion that it isn't the communist government that is pulling the strings.

    China is not a free market and I doubt it will ever be, they have taken elements of western capitalism and married it to their economic stratergies... which are a million miles from our interpretation of capitalism.

    I had an interesting conversation with a China man who told me he thinks India is the real sleeping giant, unlike China they have a democratic government and are much better prepared for educating their masses... I agree to a degree India has a similar population but it is better positioned and is already on the right track.

    What is for sure is Europe (not sure about America) is screwed... I can't even understand how our British economy stays afloat - all we sell is services?!?!?
  10. BRID

    BRID Has name in red. Staff

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    For sure - they have a very raw, punitive vibe in the air. Its quite worrying to think a country with such a blatantly bad human rights record could be running the world soon.

    ...of course we are complete hippocrites in that respect with western imperialism in current times - but at least our leaders lie through their teeth at least to justify their actions. :lol:
  11. andy_rocks

    andy_rocks Registered User

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    Don't lump me in with that please.....;)

    The question of dominance of nations in the future is a very difficult one to answer, and history suggests that dominance tends to be relatively short lived.

    The west has little to no future in manufacturing I would suggest, market forces are such that this will go to wherever the labour is cheapest. Currently, it's China, amongst others, but China could concievably end up pricing themselves out of the market - and, importantly, lots of their exports are to the West - they are still dependent on us for revenue in that sense.

    I think in the future it's not just manufacturing jobs but a lot of information based jobs - who needs a UK web designer when an Indian one can do the same job for quarter of the price? What about a radiologist to interpret X-rays? It's all easy to export, and I think India is priming itself very well for such roles - their spending on technology education is comparatively huge.

    This view that we'll take the cushy jobs and let the Indian and Chinese do our manufacturing is a fallacy indeed.

    The US is still the dominant country in terms of research, and I think it's going to stay that way for the forseeable future. As a country, we can't base our economy around service industries, there has to be something underlying it all that can't be done cheaper and better elsewhere.

    Personally, I think it's in engineering and science based expertise, and if I was in power, I'd be doing something about the decline of such university places. Probably by offering to refund tuition fees to anyone getting a 2:1 or better in a science/engineering type degree, and offering funding for masters/PhD level study, and economic incentives for spin-out companies, as so successfully pioneered by the US.

    And if all that fails, we're going to need a monarchy still for tourism

    :lol:
  12. andy_rocks

    andy_rocks Registered User

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    Might well take you up on that, thanks - my parents have some spare air miles and no leave left to use them in before they expire :D

    I used to live with a girl who studied chinese and is working out there now, so hopefully I won't be too dependent on learning that language, which I'm told is ferociously difficult.

    I've only got 2-3 weeks though, and I simply don't think thats enough to see more than the tourist spots.
  13. ManofScience

    ManofScience Guest

    totally.

    america has it's eyes closed doing the whole "its not really happening" thing... i think we, the uk, will be like a speck of crap on the shoe of china :lol:

    it's the speed that it's all developing thats amazing - something that the russian commies never had
  14. Sweeney

    Sweeney Registered User

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    I cant see how China can sustain this level of growth for much longer, the air pollution there is at catastrophic levels. I think I read some where that they are building up to 4 new coal fired power stations a day. Surely this isnt feasable in the long term?
  15. Yosef Ha'Kohain

    Yosef Ha'Kohain Registered User

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    Both of these statements aren't true, china is so vast that there is a very logical argument that keynesian forces will just relocate the the industrial hub to a different region of China.

    China also are not reliant on imports, very little gets imported into the country... the myths that have been true for other developing nations simply is not true for China.

    So true...
  16. Yosef Ha'Kohain

    Yosef Ha'Kohain Registered User

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    yeah chinese is a beast, the written language isn't related to the oral language, it isn't phonetical, it's tonal.... it pays to have a government translator :up:
  17. Yosef Ha'Kohain

    Yosef Ha'Kohain Registered User

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    air pollution wont prevent a nation from developing... maybe in hundreds of years time... but we'll witness the rise of China within the next 50 years.
  18. forks

    forks still not dead

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    to some extent the US is already propped up by china. The US imports masses of chinese goods which they pay for in dollars which are held as a reserve currency by the chinese. The dollar is grotesquely overvalued even now and one day the financial system which underpins the global trade system will undergo a massive shift as the currencies of asia become the reserve currencies and the US (and us as well) go down the pan.

    There is nothing to stop a country prospering on the basis of a service economy ((the swiss seem to have managed ok for centuries) but we are just living on the coat tails of our historical british empire based finance system and seem wedded to the idea that it doesn't matter that foreign companies are buying up british ones at a rate, with the profits from british labour going overseas. In addition we make almost no long term investments as the system is just there to squeeze the maximum out of firms to provide short term profits to the city. We are likely heading for a fall

    but... we have some major advantages which are not really recognised by the people who live here.
    1 we are largely free of corruption
    2 we largely follow the rule of law
    3 the military is unlikely to stage a takeover
    4 we are free to critisise those in charge
    5 we have a large immigrant population which gives us connections around the globe
    6 we speak english
    7 we mostly have a strong work ethic

    some of these are declining assets ( the university system which used to attract masses of foreign students has declined to the point of being an almost negative asset) but the combination of these things make us still a formidable country in economic terms.
    I agree that it will be about India rather than china, at least in the medium term




    oh. I wrote an essay.sorry:rolleyes:
  19. Yosef Ha'Kohain

    Yosef Ha'Kohain Registered User

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    service economies only work if theres an economy to support, china hasn't turned to the west for these services... The swiss held their economy together by weaving their security blanket from the Europeans.

    Who would the UK service? Europe is on a decline, America is on a decline, rising giants like China are inward looking and are not partaking in globalization (harvesting global assets is not the same as globalization)... India, maybe? But of the giants China seems the more likely to come out on top.

    There is no place for service economies in the NWO ;)
  20. forks

    forks still not dead

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    somebody has to take in the washing.
    we could turn the UK into a global laundrette.
  21. andy_rocks

    andy_rocks Registered User

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    I want to know what's going to happen to the Middle East.

    Dubai is obviously spending all its oil money on tourist infrastructure, and indoor ski domes in the desert and stuff.

    I for one can't think of anything more silly than an indoor ski dome in the desert, and it is perhaps the very bottom of my list of places to go :lol:

    They've gambled on tourism to sustain them when oil money runs out - I'm not so sure as they have no real natural attractions there.

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